Global forecast up from 2018 levels of 34.8 million mT
AMITOM (Association Méditerranéenne Internationale de la Tomate) countries expect to process 26.3% of global processed tomato products. After experiencing a decrease in total production in 2018 (down to 34.8 million mT from 37.7 in 2017), the global forecast is expected to return to 2017 levels.
With AMITOM countries in their planting season, global intentions are becoming more solidified. One of the largest growing areas, Italy, suffered drought conditions with rainfall decreasing by 40% and is facing difficult price negotiations. Total planting areas have remained the same in Northern Italy while price negotiations continue, expecting 4.9 million mT this year.
Spain is expected to maintain the same prices as last year while their production forecasts increase to 3 million mT. Weather is very dry and warm but they are not expected to experience difficulties in water availability. Spanish growers just recently met at ACOPAEX (Agrupación de Cooperativas Agrarias de Extremadura) to turn their focus on increasing crop yields to 100 tonnes per hectare.
Turkey experienced an increase in surfaces planted by 20% and maintains their production level of 1.9 million mT.
Other WPTC (World Processing Tomato Council) members expect to have reasonably the same level of production as 2018.
In China, weather conditions are normal and the forecast stays at 4.5 million mT.
Brazil experienced similar conditions to California and had a delayed planting with healthy plant development. The estimated forecast is 1.2 million mT on a 13% reduced surface area.
With estimates leveling out for the 2019 crop, it is interesting to examine the global economics of the processing tomato industry. The volume of raw tomatoes absorbed last year by worldwide exports are approximately 25.5 million mT, up from
25.3 in 2017 and in line with the 3-year average of 25.5. Exports in the paste category accounted for nearly 76% of raw materials.
Paste also accounts for the majority of absorption of raw material volume increases. Canned products, on the other hand, have suffered from slowed growth, only increasing by around 2.6% each year.
As demonstrated in the figure above, China still exports the largest volume at 6.34 million mT while Italy is close behind at 5.02 million mT and the US at 3.47 million mT.
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