Back-to-Back Record Setting Years in Global Tomato Production
By: Jake Sherman, The Morning Star Company
On October 21, the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) reported an estimated global tomato processing volume of 45.8 million MT for 2024. Although this preliminary figure is 1.5 million MT lower than the June 2024 forecast, it still exceeds 2023’s total by 1.43 million MT, setting a new record for global production.
This rise is largely driven by China, increasing production by 2.45 million MT compared to 2023 and leading the world with a total of 10.45 million MT. During the 2024 processing season, Chinese regions processed as follows:
- Northern Xinjiang: 6.45 million MT (61.73%)
- Southern Xinjiang: 2.17 million MT (20.75%)
- Inner Mongolia: 1.75 million MT (16.76%)
- Gansu: 80 thousand MT (0.76%)
The season in China ran from July 20 to October 9, lasting 82 days, which is 10 days longer than in 2023. Additionally, 106 factories were operational, up from 100 the previous year. Farmers reported average yields below 42.18 MT per acre, with tomato prices ranging between $70 to $82 USD per MT. Early indicators suggest that China’s tomato production may decline in 2025, and the average price received by farmers for processing tomatoes is also expected to decrease, which has the potential to discourage production.
In contrast, California – the world’s second-largest tomato producer – saw a reduction in output, down 1.74 million short tons to 11 million short tons. At the conclusion of the 2023 season, processors signaled to the industry that 2024 would likely have lower tonnage, with a focus on keeping efficient factory run rates. Although the initial June forecast projected 11.50 million short tons, heatwaves led to a shortfall of 500 thousand short tons. In 2024, California’s tomato processing volumes were distributed across its regions as follows:
- North: 3.43 million short tons (31.14%)
- Central: 1.33 million short tons (12.03%)
- South: 6.26 million short tons (56.82%)
California reported average tomato solids of 5.3, although color quality remained challenging throughout the season. Paid yields were consistent with three-year averages of 48 short tons per acre and early signs suggest a potential decrease in California’s tomato production for 2025.
The 2024 season marked a new global production record of 45.8 million MT, surpassing 2023’s 44.4 million MT. However, preliminary data for 2025 points to a potential global production decline after two consecutive record-breaking years. The WPTC plans to release its initial 2025 forecast in February, where the entire processing tomato sector will be following closely.
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