Understanding the Tomato Landscape: Our annual review of the forces influencing California and global processing tomatoes.
Part 3: Supply and Demand Outlook
As we conclude this year’s three-part series, we bring the full industry picture into focus. We began by examining raw material dynamics and the evolving agricultural landscape, then explored California’s water outlook and regulatory environment. In this final chapter, we turn to the market side of the equation – connecting production, inventory, and demand to better understand how recent seasons are shaping the year ahead.
Part 3 centers on the supply and demand outlook for processed tomato products and the key planning considerations for the 2026 crop. With record production in 2025 leaving inventories elevated, planned tonnage for 2026 reflects a deliberate adjustment as the industry works to rebalance supply. At the same time, domestic demand remains steady, export channels show constructive momentum, and trade dynamics – including currency and tariff pressures – continue to influence competitiveness. By examining crop intentions alongside stock-on-hand data and movement trends, this section connects the numbers to the broader market balance heading into 2026.
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