INTERNATIONAL CROP UPDATE FALL 2026

By: Jake Sherman

Global processing tomato production is expected to decline approximately 2.6%, from 40.43 million metric tons in 2025 to 39.37 million metric tons in 2026, as lower production in several major growing regions offsets gains elsewhere. On October 28, the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) released its preliminary global production estimates, revising its September forecast upward from 39.0 million metric tons. The increase is largely driven by California’s stronger-than-expected harvest and upward revisions in several European countries. While California is expected to finish below last year’s production levels, European countries have experienced mixed results, China is forecasting a slight increase following its substantial production decline in 2025, and several other producing countries continue to face weather-related challenges.

California finished the 2026 processing tomato season at approximately 9.37 million metric tons, an 11.1% decrease from the 10.54 million metric tons processed in 2025. The October 28 WPTC report revised California’s production upward from the September forecast of 9.07 million metric tons, an increase of approximately 293,000 metric tons. The harvest began in late June with strong early production, followed by stable volumes throughout the remainder of the season. Average yields reached approximately 126 metric tons per hectare, while planted acreage declined approximately 10% from 2025. Strong yields helped offset the reduction in acreage and contributed to the upward revision.

European processing tomato production experienced mixed results in 2026, with increased production in Italy, Spain, and Portugal offsetting reductions in several other countries. Italy finished the season with record production of approximately 6.36 million metric tons, an 8.8% increase from 2025. However, high temperatures, hailstorms, and September rainfall negatively impacted yields and tomato quality in Northern Italy, where average soluble solids declined to 4.78° Brix, with the final week recording 4.42° Brix. Spain processed approximately 2.57 million metric tons, a 6.4% increase from 2025, although production in Andalusia and Extremadura finished approximately 12% and 8% below expectations. Portugal finished at approximately 1.39 million metric tons, a 6.1% increase from 2025, despite heavy rainfall delaying planting and unfavorable weather conditions complicating crop management throughout the season.

China increased processing tomato production by approximately 5% in 2026, following a substantial reduction in production last year. In 2024, China processed approximately 10.45 million metric tons before declining to 4.9 million metric tons in 2025. The WPTC reported Chinese production at approximately 5.15 million metric tons in 2026, representing a 5.1% increase from last year but remaining approximately 51% below its 2024 level. Production also finished approximately 700,000 metric tons below earlier expectations, as hailstorms, excessive heat, water shortages, and heavy rainfall negatively impacted growing and harvesting conditions. Despite the slight increase in 2026, China’s production remains substantially below its recent peak.

Overall, global processing tomato production finished approximately 1.06 million metric tons below 2025 levels, despite stronger-than-anticipated production in California and increased production in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and China. While global production volumes improved from earlier forecasts, lower soluble solids and quality concerns in several major producing countries could affect finished tomato product output. With the WPTC’s latest global production figures now available, the industry will continue monitoring any final revisions and their implications for global tomato product inventories and international trade.