In many countries, it is difficult to have a precise prediction of the 2020 crop; however, we can look at several indicators to determine increases or decreases in production.
Greece is expecting a 10-12% increase to 400,000 mT, with growers willing to plant more after an encouraging 2019 season.
Italy is on track to produce on par with 2019, expecting 5 million mT to be delivered (2.6 in the north and 2.4 in the south).
Portugal has just recently confirmed their contracts and is expected to produce 1.4 million mT.
Spain faces some concerns about water availability in Andalusia and subsequently reduced surface planting by 7% in the region; however, yields in 2019 were promising and, combined with a 4% increase in the Extremadura region, the country expects to produce 3.1 million mT.
Turkish farmers have indicated a desire to increase planting in 2020 but Turkey is facing high inventories from 2019 and will likely produce around 2.2 million mT.
China is facing an increase in the demand for production, with 100,000 acres being added to the current growing areas, which should increase the raw material volume by 0.7 million mT.
California has contracts totaling 10.89 million mT for 2020, an increase of 4.3% compared to reported contracts at the end of the 2019 season. With 2019 production finishing at 10.14 million mT, California should see an increase in their final volume. The California crop totals 235,000 acres (95,100 hectares) with an average yield of 51.1 short tons/acre (114.5 t/ha).
Southern Hemisphere countries continue to harvest into March, with Argentina, Australia, and Chile expecting to deliver a total of 1.5 million mT of product.
Global tomato paste exports, for all countries, saw a notable increase in the 2018/2019 marketing year. While growth since 2011/2012 has been nominal, the 1.6% jump last year represents total exports jumping from 3.33 to 3.46 million mT.
Ukraine has been the primary driver for this increase in global exports, growing at 19% annually for the last seven years, bringing their total production up from 125,000 mT to 420,000 mT. Portugal, as well, had an 8% annual growth to transform from 363,000 mT to 628,000 mT. Finally, Spain rose 14%, taking their production from 878,000 mT to 2.22 million mT between 2011 and 2019.