2025 GLOBAL TOMATO PRODUCTION: MARCH FORECAST

By: Jake Sherman

On March 28, 2025, the World Processing Tomato Congress announced its latest global production intentions. Worldwide, processors plan to handle 40.8 million metric tons of tomatoes in 2025, which is a decline of 5.1 million metric tons from 2024 and 3.6 million metric tons from 2023.

California remains the world’s leading producer, with projected processing volume of 9.25 million metric tons and representing 22.7% of global output. This estimate is based on 200,000 planted acres and an expected yield of 46.27 metric tons per acre, which is notably above the historical average of 43.55 metric tons per acre.

China intends to process 6.0 million metric tons in 2025, accounting for 14.7% of global volume. This is a substantial drop from 10.45 million metric tons in 2024 and 8.0 million metric tons in 2023. According to Tomato News, production could decline further, although it’s too early for confirmation.

Italy is projected to process 5.6 million metric tons, or 13.7% of global production, making it Europe’s largest contributor. Weather has created challenges across regions: Northern Italy experienced heavy spring rains, delaying planting by about two weeks, while Southern Italy saw limited rainfall in the winter and spring that has strained water supplies. As a result, many growers in the South will rely on well water for the upcoming season.

Spain and Portugal are also facing weather-related delays. Spain is expected to process 2.6 million metric tons (6.4% of global production), while Portugal is projected at 1.4 million metric tons (3.4% of global production). Both countries received substantial winter and spring rainfall. In Portugal, planting is now delayed by about four weeks. In Spain’s key growing region of Extremadura, delays are estimated at three weeks or more. Fortunately, Andalusia’s delay is minor, and across both countries, the rainfall has helped restore reservoir levels, alleviating water supply concerns for the upcoming season.

Ukraine is projected to produce 550 thousand metric tons of processing tomatoes in 2025, representing 1.3% of global production. This is the same amount as 2024 and 50 thousand metric tons more than 2023. For context, production dropped sharply to 120 thousand metric tons in 2022 due to the ongoing war, a steep decline from 800 thousand metric tons in 2021, when Ukraine accounted for 2% of global volume. The conflict continues to pose major challenges for the sector, making it difficult to staff farms, greenhouses, and processing facilities as many workers have been displaced.